Traders are pricing the 2026 global GDP growth rate with a tight cluster around 3.0–3.2 percent amid heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook revised its baseline forecast down to 3.1 percent from the January 3.3 percent projection, citing a moderate 19 percent rise in energy costs under a contained-war scenario that also lifts headline inflation to 4.4 percent. This adjustment, coupled with downside risks from prolonged hostilities, elevated public debt, and potential trade tensions, has compressed probabilities across the central outcomes while keeping tail risks for sub-2.9 percent or 3.6 percent-plus scenarios in play. Upcoming data releases on inflation trajectories and central-bank policy responses will likely determine whether consensus shifts toward the lower or upper end of the current narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於≤2.9% 18%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 4.3%
3.7%以上 1.8%
$17,559 交易量
$17,559 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
26%
3.0%
36%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
37%
3.3%
9%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
26%
3.7%以上
22%
≤2.9% 18%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 4.3%
3.7%以上 1.8%
$17,559 交易量
$17,559 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
$3,766 交易量
26%
3.0%
$481 交易量
36%
3.1%
$470 交易量
37%
3.2%
$1,691 交易量
37%
3.3%
$3,380 交易量
9%
3.4%
$3,527 交易量
8%
3.5%
$3,006 交易量
1%
3.6%
$452 交易量
26%
3.7%以上
$787 交易量
22%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing the 2026 global GDP growth rate with a tight cluster around 3.0–3.2 percent amid heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook revised its baseline forecast down to 3.1 percent from the January 3.3 percent projection, citing a moderate 19 percent rise in energy costs under a contained-war scenario that also lifts headline inflation to 4.4 percent. This adjustment, coupled with downside risks from prolonged hostilities, elevated public debt, and potential trade tensions, has compressed probabilities across the central outcomes while keeping tail risks for sub-2.9 percent or 3.6 percent-plus scenarios in play. Upcoming data releases on inflation trajectories and central-bank policy responses will likely determine whether consensus shifts toward the lower or upper end of the current narrow range.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$17,559結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing the 2026 global GDP growth rate with a tight cluster around 3.0–3.2 percent amid heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook revised its baseline forecast down to 3.1 percent from the January 3.3 percent projection, citing a moderate 19 percent rise in energy costs under a contained-war scenario that also lifts headline inflation to 4.4 percent. This adjustment, coupled with downside risks from prolonged hostilities, elevated public debt, and potential trade tensions, has compressed probabilities across the central outcomes while keeping tail risks for sub-2.9 percent or 3.6 percent-plus scenarios in play. Upcoming data releases on inflation trajectories and central-bank policy responses will likely determine whether consensus shifts toward the lower or upper end of the current narrow range.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$17,559結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing the 2026 global GDP growth rate with a tight cluster around 3.0–3.2 percent amid heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook revised its baseline forecast down to 3.1 percent from the January 3.3 percent projection, citing a moderate 19 percent rise in energy costs under a contained-war scenario that also lifts headline inflation to 4.4 percent. This adjustment, coupled with downside risks from prolonged hostilities, elevated public debt, and potential trade tensions, has compressed probabilities across the central outcomes while keeping tail risks for sub-2.9 percent or 3.6 percent-plus scenarios in play. Upcoming data releases on inflation trajectories and central-bank policy responses will likely determine whether consensus shifts toward the lower or upper end of the current narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions