US maximum pressure tactics, including an oil blockade following the January 2026 removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, have deepened Cuba’s fuel shortages, blackouts, and humanitarian strains while prompting limited protests and some diaspora investment openings. The regime has contained demonstrations through security measures and elite cohesion, avoiding the scale of 2021 unrest, and recent US-Cuban negotiations plus selective Russian oil deliveries suggest a managed pressure strategy rather than imminent collapse. Traders assign the 78.5% probability to “No” because historical resilience, emigration as a safety valve, and absence of decisive internal fractures outweigh external economic leverage through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$266,404 交易量
$266,404 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$266,404 交易量
$266,404 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US maximum pressure tactics, including an oil blockade following the January 2026 removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, have deepened Cuba’s fuel shortages, blackouts, and humanitarian strains while prompting limited protests and some diaspora investment openings. The regime has contained demonstrations through security measures and elite cohesion, avoiding the scale of 2021 unrest, and recent US-Cuban negotiations plus selective Russian oil deliveries suggest a managed pressure strategy rather than imminent collapse. Traders assign the 78.5% probability to “No” because historical resilience, emigration as a safety valve, and absence of decisive internal fractures outweigh external economic leverage through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$266,404結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US maximum pressure tactics, including an oil blockade following the January 2026 removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, have deepened Cuba’s fuel shortages, blackouts, and humanitarian strains while prompting limited protests and some diaspora investment openings. The regime has contained demonstrations through security measures and elite cohesion, avoiding the scale of 2021 unrest, and recent US-Cuban negotiations plus selective Russian oil deliveries suggest a managed pressure strategy rather than imminent collapse. Traders assign the 78.5% probability to “No” because historical resilience, emigration as a safety valve, and absence of decisive internal fractures outweigh external economic leverage through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$274,157結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US maximum pressure tactics, including an oil blockade following the January 2026 removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, have deepened Cuba’s fuel shortages, blackouts, and humanitarian strains while prompting limited protests and some diaspora investment openings. The regime has contained demonstrations through security measures and elite cohesion, avoiding the scale of 2021 unrest, and recent US-Cuban negotiations plus selective Russian oil deliveries suggest a managed pressure strategy rather than imminent collapse. Traders assign the 78.5% probability to “No” because historical resilience, emigration as a safety valve, and absence of decisive internal fractures outweigh external economic leverage through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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