**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential. Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於密歇根州 50%
阿拉斯加 24%
緬因州 15%
愛荷華州 9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
密歇根州
50%
阿拉斯加
24%
緬因州
15%
愛荷華州
9%
德州
6%
俄亥俄州
6%
密歇根州 50%
阿拉斯加 24%
緬因州 15%
愛荷華州 9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
密歇根州
$56 交易量
50%
阿拉斯加
$119 交易量
24%
緬因州
$39 交易量
15%
愛荷華州
$39 交易量
9%
德州
$39 交易量
6%
俄亥俄州
$57 交易量
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential.
Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
交易量
$349結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential.
Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$349結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential. Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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