**The 57.5% implied probability for a safety car reflects Sepang's incident-prone layout combined with 2026 power-unit teething issues exposed during the relocated Bahrain Grand Prix.** Heavy pre-race rain triggered formation-lap chaos, with multiple cars suffering software-related power loss at low speeds behind the safety car, forcing a red flag and highlighting new-reg vulnerabilities in wet or neutralised conditions. Later, on-track stops by cars including Albon and Russell prompted virtual and full safety-car periods that bunched the field. Historical Bahrain deployments, tyre degradation on the Malaysian circuit, and the first wet running under the revised hybrid rules have reinforced trader expectations of neutralisation, while the race's variable weather and reliability unknowns sustain the moderate edge for deployment.