The high-altitude layout of the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, combined with its mix of a long main straight and multiple heavy braking zones into tight, low-grip corners, has historically produced a safety car or virtual safety car in roughly half of recent Mexican Grands Prix. Thin air reduces engine output and cooling efficiency while making tire warm-up and grip management more demanding, especially under the 2026 power-unit regulations with their revised energy deployment and active aero. These factors encourage close racing and occasional incidents without guaranteeing disruptions, keeping the trader-implied probability near even. Late-season form, qualifying incidents, or unexpected rain could shift the balance either direction ahead of the October 30–November 1 event.