Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a daytime high near 23–24°C for Chengdu on October 17, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered light rain, and moderate northeasterly flow typical of Huaxi autumn rain patterns in the Sichuan Basin. These conditions limit daytime heating while basin topography and residual moisture moderate extremes. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around this range, with slight upside potential if breaks in cloud occur midday, explaining the close market-implied probabilities for 23–25°C. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution.