Traders see closely matched probabilities across 35–37°C because ensemble forecasts from major global models show only modest spread in peak daytime heating for Guangzhou on July 24. Recent upper-level ridging has supported daytime temperatures several degrees above seasonal normals, but increasing moisture from the East Asian monsoon and variable low-level cloud cover introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta can add 1–2°C locally, while any increase in afternoon convection or sea-breeze influence could cap the high near 35°C. Updated model runs and regional observations expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range and likely shift the tightest probabilities.