Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月23日東京氣溫最高？
7月23日東京氣溫最高？
36°C 34%
35°C 29%
37°C 18%
34°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-23
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
3%
34°C
13%
35°C
29%
36°C
34%
37°C
18%
38°C
5%
39°C or higher
<1%
36°C 34%
35°C 29%
37°C 18%
34°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-23
29°C or below
$396 交易量
<1%
30°C
$396 交易量
<1%
31°C
$27 交易量
<1%
32°C
$23 交易量
1%
33°C
$69 交易量
3%
34°C
$321 交易量
13%
35°C
$137 交易量
29%
36°C
$804 交易量
34%
37°C
$255 交易量
18%
38°C
$610 交易量
5%
39°C or higher
$3,133 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$6,170結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,170結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent JMA guidance and ensemble model runs point to a persistent Pacific High driving subsidence and warm-air advection over the Kanto region, sustaining daytime maxima in the mid-30s for July 23. Subtle differences in forecast wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and possible thin cloud cover create the narrow spread among 35–37 °C outcomes, with urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo adding a further 1–2 °C locally. Above-normal seasonal temperatures this July reflect the broader pattern, yet day-to-day variability in steering flow keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered rather than favoring any single value. Updated JMA three-day and numerical guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions