Official observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency recorded a daily high of 25.5°C in central Tokyo on October 14, with hourly peaks reaching 25.1°C by mid-afternoon under mostly cloudy conditions and light variable winds. This late-day confirmation, consistent with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services data and regional model outputs, underpins the market-implied certainty at 26°C by aligning closely with the resolution threshold. Historical October averages near 23°C and the month's anomalously warm pattern provide context, yet the outcome hinges on final verified station readings. Minor adjustments in post-processing or selection of a secondary urban site could theoretically shift the exact value, though current evidence shows limited scope for such variance.