**Forecast model consensus positions 22–23°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Warsaw on October 8, 2026.** Multiple runs from sources such as GFS indicate southerly to southeasterly flow advecting milder air, with daytime highs reaching 21–22°C (70–72°F) under mostly cloudy skies and a chance of light rain or drizzle. This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes (23°C at 46.5%, 22°C at 29.5%), as traders weigh the narrow range typical of ensemble spreads for a single-day European autumn forecast. Recent model updates show limited divergence, with no strong signals for warmer advection or clearer skies that would push values to 24°C or higher. Official monitoring from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology will confirm the daily maximum shortly after sunset on the 8th, providing the resolution data.