Global earthquake rates tracked by the USGS show a long-term average of about 16 magnitude 7.0 or greater events per year, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and transform faults. Annual totals fluctuate naturally between roughly 10 and 20 due to the random timing of strain release, with no evidence of systematic increases or decreases in recent decades. As of mid-May 2026 the count sits near the historical pace for the first five months, leaving traders focused on whether the remaining months will produce a typical cluster or an unusually quiet stretch. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 11–19 range because new seismic data or an unexpected quiet period could easily shift the final tally within that window.