Iceland’s referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “no” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant “No 3–6%” outcome. The result reflected entrenched rural opposition centered on fishing rights and national sovereignty, which outweighed urban support in Reykjavík and arguments linking membership to greater security amid Arctic tensions. High turnout of 82.5% underscored the issue’s salience, while late polling shifts and a well-funded “no” campaign helped lock in the close finish. With the government pledging to respect the outcome and shelve talks for the remainder of its term, traders have converged on the observed narrow margin rather than larger or “yes” scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於反對 3–6% 86.9%
否 6-9% 8.0%
否 12–15% 7.5%
否 9–12% 7.3%
$16,936 交易量
$16,936 交易量
2026-08-29
是 15%+
1%
贊成 12–15%
<1%
是 9–12%
7%
同意 6–9%
1%
贊成 3–6%
1%
是方少於3%
1%
否少於3%
2%
反對 3–6%
87%
否 6-9%
7%
否 9–12%
7%
否 12–15%
8%
否 15%+
4%
反對 3–6% 86.9%
否 6-9% 8.0%
否 12–15% 7.5%
否 9–12% 7.3%
$16,936 交易量
$16,936 交易量
2026-08-29
是 15%+
$842 交易量
1%
贊成 12–15%
$323 交易量
<1%
是 9–12%
$2,599 交易量
7%
同意 6–9%
$315 交易量
1%
贊成 3–6%
$1,117 交易量
1%
是方少於3%
$387 交易量
1%
否少於3%
$3,396 交易量
2%
反對 3–6%
$1,307 交易量
87%
否 6-9%
$429 交易量
7%
否 9–12%
$366 交易量
7%
否 12–15%
$325 交易量
8%
否 15%+
$5,530 交易量
4%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “no” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant “No 3–6%” outcome. The result reflected entrenched rural opposition centered on fishing rights and national sovereignty, which outweighed urban support in Reykjavík and arguments linking membership to greater security amid Arctic tensions. High turnout of 82.5% underscored the issue’s salience, while late polling shifts and a well-funded “no” campaign helped lock in the close finish. With the government pledging to respect the outcome and shelve talks for the remainder of its term, traders have converged on the observed narrow margin rather than larger or “yes” scenarios.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$16,936結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETThe Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “no” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant “No 3–6%” outcome. The result reflected entrenched rural opposition centered on fishing rights and national sovereignty, which outweighed urban support in Reykjavík and arguments linking membership to greater security amid Arctic tensions. High turnout of 82.5% underscored the issue’s salience, while late polling shifts and a well-funded “no” campaign helped lock in the close finish. With the government pledging to respect the outcome and shelve talks for the remainder of its term, traders have converged on the observed narrow margin rather than larger or “yes” scenarios.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$16,936結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETIceland’s referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “no” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant “No 3–6%” outcome. The result reflected entrenched rural opposition centered on fishing rights and national sovereignty, which outweighed urban support in Reykjavík and arguments linking membership to greater security amid Arctic tensions. High turnout of 82.5% underscored the issue’s salience, while late polling shifts and a well-funded “no” campaign helped lock in the close finish. With the government pledging to respect the outcome and shelve talks for the remainder of its term, traders have converged on the observed narrow margin rather than larger or “yes” scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions