Recent model consensus from sources including NOAA-aligned and regional forecasts points to a low near 18–21°C on October 17 amid persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit nighttime radiative cooling in Chongqing’s humid subtropical climate. These conditions, following several days of similar moist air masses, keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to October climatology while also capping upside potential from brief daytime warming. Divergent ensemble runs introduce spread around the 20°C threshold, with some guidance allowing a dip to 17–18°C if precipitation intensifies overnight. Traders are weighting the latest short-range updates and historical analogs for comparable late-autumn patterns as resolution nears.