**Trader consensus on a 14°C daily minimum in Madrid on October 14 stems from numerical weather model agreement and official AEMET guidance showing a clear, high-pressure regime with light easterly winds favoring nocturnal radiative cooling to around that threshold.** Forecasts consistently project overnight lows of 15–17°C under mostly clear skies, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds reflecting high confidence in stable autumnal conditions rather than anomalous cold advection. Historical October minima in Madrid average near 10–12°C, so this outcome aligns with a mild air mass persisting into mid-month. A realistic challenge would require increased cloud cover overnight or a shift in steering winds that limits surface cooling below model expectations before official observations finalize the daily minimum.