**Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and Open-Meteo runs, project an overnight low near 13°C for Madrid on October 16 under clear skies and light winds favoring radiational cooling.** Daytime highs are expected to reach 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions maintaining the typical mid-October diurnal range. This aligns with regional climatology, where average October minima hover around 10–15°C at the 655 m elevation. Trader consensus reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 12°C or below incorporates uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer temperatures and potential microscale variations across the city. Official AEMET minimum readings and any last-hour forecast adjustments will determine resolution.