**Recent observational data from Moscow stations confirm the overnight minimum remained near 12°C, establishing a record warm low for October 12 and driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that exact outcome.** Official reports from the Phobos center and VDNKh station recorded a low of 12.5°C, surpassing the prior 1981 benchmark of 11.4°C, with central sites like Balchug even higher at 13.6°C. This aligns with southerly flow, elevated dew points, and persistent cloud cover that suppressed radiational cooling below typical early-October climatology of roughly 3–4°C. Forecaster consensus from the Hydrometeorological Center and regional models had anticipated 9–12°C lows, but actual conditions exceeded those projections. Only a late revision in official station data or a differing resolution source could realistically shift the outcome, though current measurements leave little room for such adjustment.