Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park and area airports indicate an overnight low of 56–58°F on October 4 amid increasing clouds, a 50% chance of showers, and easterly winds near 5–10 mph that limit radiational cooling. This places the expected minimum squarely in the two leading market bins at 58–59°F and 60–61°F, whose combined 85.5% implied probability reflects tight model consensus around these values. Historical October 4 averages near 55°F and recent warmer-than-normal conditions add modest upside risk, while any stronger onshore flow or heavier rain could nudge readings slightly lower. Updated NWS guidance and final hourly observations tomorrow morning will determine the official Central Park minimum used for resolution.