Recent model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France indicate overnight lows in Paris on October 16 will likely fall between 9–13 °C under partly cloudy to showery conditions with moderate westerly winds. This range reflects modest radiative cooling overnight, modulated by variable cloud cover and a weak frontal passage that limits clear-sky temperature drops. Historical October averages near 8.7 °C provide context, yet current ensemble spread—driven by differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind timing—keeps 11 °C, 12 °C, and 13 °C outcomes closely matched in trader pricing. Updated high-resolution guidance and station observations from Paris-Montsouris will refine the exact minimum before market resolution.