Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show moderate uncertainty in Shenzhen's overnight minimum for October 16, with ensemble guidance clustering between 21–27 °C amid variable autumnal conditions. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any approaching cold air mass, local wind speed and direction affecting radiative cooling, and boundary-layer humidity levels that influence dew-point suppression. Historical October minima in the subtropical city average near 22 °C, but short-term variability from shifting high-pressure ridges creates the broad market distribution. Updated model outputs expected within the next 12–24 hours could narrow the range by refining these atmospheric parameters.