**Forecast models indicate the overnight low in Tel Aviv on October 12 will likely settle near 23–24°C, splitting trader probabilities almost evenly between those outcomes.** Coastal Mediterranean conditions, including persistent northwesterly breezes of 5–7 m/s and moderate cloud cover, limit radiative cooling overnight while sea-surface temperatures around 26°C provide a thermal buffer. Dew points near 18–20°C further constrain how far temperatures can fall before dawn. Historical October minima average 19–20°C, but current higher humidity and reduced clear-sky periods support the warmer consensus. Model runs show minor divergence on exact timing of the daily minimum, creating the tight 51%–50% pricing between 24°C and 23°C; any late-evening clearing or wind shift could tip the recorded low by 1°C before resolution.