Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
22°C 38%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-07-01
17°C or below
3%
18°C
3%
19°C
17%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
38%
23°C
20%
24°C
19%
25°C
17%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
3%
22°C 38%
21°C 21%
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-07-01
17°C or below
$23 交易量
3%
18°C
$13 交易量
3%
19°C
$0 交易量
17%
20°C
$0 交易量
18%
21°C
$0 交易量
21%
22°C
$0 交易量
38%
23°C
$0 交易量
20%
24°C
$0 交易量
19%
25°C
$0 交易量
17%
26°C
$11 交易量
1%
27°C or higher
$196 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$243結束日期
2026-07-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$243結束日期
2026-07-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions