**Latest Environment Canada forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Toronto on October 4 point to an overnight low near 8–10 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 30 % chance of showers, placing the outcome near the middle of the distribution and sustaining the near-even split between sub-6 °C and 16 °C-plus scenarios.** Clearer-than-expected conditions could enhance radiational cooling and push readings lower, while increased cloud cover or southerly flow would moderate temperatures toward the milder end. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 10 °C, providing context for the current spread. Updated high-resolution model runs and the next official Environment Canada bulletin expected within 24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.