North Korea's missile testing patterns reflect deliberate cycles of escalation and restraint tied to military modernization priorities and responses to external security dynamics. Following a concentrated series of short-range ballistic missile launches in April, including cluster munition variants, activity has remained limited into mid-May, aligning with historical pauses after barrages that allow assessment of new capabilities. Trader consensus favoring fewer than two tests this month draws from these established rhythms, as Pyongyang calibrates provocations around U.S.-South Korea exercises, diplomatic signals, and resource constraints without fresh triggers. The lower probability on four or more outcomes accounts for barriers to sustained daily launches absent major geopolitical catalysts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於 2 次 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-05-31
少於 2 次
69%
2-3
26%
4+
5%
少於 2 次 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-05-31
少於 2 次
$1,353 交易量
69%
2-3
$3,242 交易量
26%
4+
$516 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's missile testing patterns reflect deliberate cycles of escalation and restraint tied to military modernization priorities and responses to external security dynamics. Following a concentrated series of short-range ballistic missile launches in April, including cluster munition variants, activity has remained limited into mid-May, aligning with historical pauses after barrages that allow assessment of new capabilities. Trader consensus favoring fewer than two tests this month draws from these established rhythms, as Pyongyang calibrates provocations around U.S.-South Korea exercises, diplomatic signals, and resource constraints without fresh triggers. The lower probability on four or more outcomes accounts for barriers to sustained daily launches absent major geopolitical catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
交易量
$5,112結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's missile testing patterns reflect deliberate cycles of escalation and restraint tied to military modernization priorities and responses to external security dynamics. Following a concentrated series of short-range ballistic missile launches in April, including cluster munition variants, activity has remained limited into mid-May, aligning with historical pauses after barrages that allow assessment of new capabilities. Trader consensus favoring fewer than two tests this month draws from these established rhythms, as Pyongyang calibrates provocations around U.S.-South Korea exercises, diplomatic signals, and resource constraints without fresh triggers. The lower probability on four or more outcomes accounts for barriers to sustained daily launches absent major geopolitical catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$5,112結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea's missile testing patterns reflect deliberate cycles of escalation and restraint tied to military modernization priorities and responses to external security dynamics. Following a concentrated series of short-range ballistic missile launches in April, including cluster munition variants, activity has remained limited into mid-May, aligning with historical pauses after barrages that allow assessment of new capabilities. Trader consensus favoring fewer than two tests this month draws from these established rhythms, as Pyongyang calibrates provocations around U.S.-South Korea exercises, diplomatic signals, and resource constraints without fresh triggers. The lower probability on four or more outcomes accounts for barriers to sustained daily launches absent major geopolitical catalysts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions