Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured 93% of the Democratic vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, prevailed in a fragmented May primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited general-election polling and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, significant candidate-specific event, or unusually high Republican turnout in a low-competition cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主黨
97%
共和黨
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
民主黨
$3,648 交易量
97%
共和黨
$3,076 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured 93% of the Democratic vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, prevailed in a fragmented May primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited general-election polling and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, significant candidate-specific event, or unusually high Republican turnout in a low-competition cycle.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,724結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured 93% of the Democratic vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, prevailed in a fragmented May primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited general-election polling and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, significant candidate-specific event, or unusually high Republican turnout in a low-competition cycle.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,724結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETDemocratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured 93% of the Democratic vote. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, prevailed in a fragmented May primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited general-election polling and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, significant candidate-specific event, or unusually high Republican turnout in a low-competition cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions