Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.6M-1.7M 44%
170萬-180萬 44%
180萬-190萬 43%
少於 1.5M 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 1.5M
43%
150萬-160萬
42%
1.6M-1.7M
44%
170萬-180萬
44%
180萬-190萬
43%
190萬-200萬
40%
200萬-210萬
40%
210萬-220萬
42%
220萬+
41%
1.6M-1.7M 44%
170萬-180萬 44%
180萬-190萬 43%
少於 1.5M 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 1.5M
$0 交易量
43%
150萬-160萬
$0 交易量
42%
1.6M-1.7M
$0 交易量
44%
170萬-180萬
$0 交易量
44%
180萬-190萬
$0 交易量
43%
190萬-200萬
$0 交易量
40%
200萬-210萬
$0 交易量
40%
210萬-220萬
$0 交易量
42%
220萬+
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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