The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges in the Hawaii governor election reflect trader uncertainty amid a low-competition race where Democratic incumbent Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a contest rated Solid Democratic. Recent primary results showed just 33% participation, with analysts citing limited top-of-ticket excitement, fallout from political controversies, and regional apathy—particularly on Oahu—as key suppressors, though competitive local contests on other islands provided some counter-momentum. Historical general-election totals have varied from roughly 423,000 ballots in 2022 to over 500,000 in presidential years, leaving the 2026 non-presidential cycle sensitive to get-out-the-vote intensity, mail-in patterns, and any emerging issues that could spur or dampen participation before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於430K-460K 45%
460K-490K 45%
340K-370K 44%
370K-400K 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
<310K
43%
310K-340K
43%
340K-370K
44%
370K-400K
44%
400K-430K
44%
430K-460K
45%
460K-490K
45%
490K+
44%
430K-460K 45%
460K-490K 45%
340K-370K 44%
370K-400K 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
<310K
$0 交易量
43%
310K-340K
$0 交易量
43%
340K-370K
$0 交易量
44%
370K-400K
$0 交易量
44%
400K-430K
$0 交易量
44%
430K-460K
$0 交易量
45%
460K-490K
$0 交易量
45%
490K+
$0 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges in the Hawaii governor election reflect trader uncertainty amid a low-competition race where Democratic incumbent Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a contest rated Solid Democratic. Recent primary results showed just 33% participation, with analysts citing limited top-of-ticket excitement, fallout from political controversies, and regional apathy—particularly on Oahu—as key suppressors, though competitive local contests on other islands provided some counter-momentum. Historical general-election totals have varied from roughly 423,000 ballots in 2022 to over 500,000 in presidential years, leaving the 2026 non-presidential cycle sensitive to get-out-the-vote intensity, mail-in patterns, and any emerging issues that could spur or dampen participation before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges in the Hawaii governor election reflect trader uncertainty amid a low-competition race where Democratic incumbent Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a contest rated Solid Democratic. Recent primary results showed just 33% participation, with analysts citing limited top-of-ticket excitement, fallout from political controversies, and regional apathy—particularly on Oahu—as key suppressors, though competitive local contests on other islands provided some counter-momentum. Historical general-election totals have varied from roughly 423,000 ballots in 2022 to over 500,000 in presidential years, leaving the 2026 non-presidential cycle sensitive to get-out-the-vote intensity, mail-in patterns, and any emerging issues that could spur or dampen participation before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges in the Hawaii governor election reflect trader uncertainty amid a low-competition race where Democratic incumbent Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a contest rated Solid Democratic. Recent primary results showed just 33% participation, with analysts citing limited top-of-ticket excitement, fallout from political controversies, and regional apathy—particularly on Oahu—as key suppressors, though competitive local contests on other islands provided some counter-momentum. Historical general-election totals have varied from roughly 423,000 ballots in 2022 to over 500,000 in presidential years, leaving the 2026 non-presidential cycle sensitive to get-out-the-vote intensity, mail-in patterns, and any emerging issues that could spur or dampen participation before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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