Spain’s minority government under Pedro Sánchez continues to target completion of the current legislative term into 2027 rather than dissolving parliament in 2026. Despite the loss of Junts support since late 2025, repeated budget rejections, and recent pressure from the Ceuta migrant crisis, Sánchez has publicly reaffirmed plans to present 2027 accounts and hold elections no earlier than February or March of next year if those budgets fail. Coalition partners such as the PNV have issued ultimatums tied to budget passage, yet no dissolution decree has been issued and constitutional timelines still permit the full term. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any verified move toward an immediate snap vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
$38,534 交易量
$38,534 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
$38,534 交易量
$38,534 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain’s minority government under Pedro Sánchez continues to target completion of the current legislative term into 2027 rather than dissolving parliament in 2026. Despite the loss of Junts support since late 2025, repeated budget rejections, and recent pressure from the Ceuta migrant crisis, Sánchez has publicly reaffirmed plans to present 2027 accounts and hold elections no earlier than February or March of next year if those budgets fail. Coalition partners such as the PNV have issued ultimatums tied to budget passage, yet no dissolution decree has been issued and constitutional timelines still permit the full term. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any verified move toward an immediate snap vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$38,534結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain’s minority government under Pedro Sánchez continues to target completion of the current legislative term into 2027 rather than dissolving parliament in 2026. Despite the loss of Junts support since late 2025, repeated budget rejections, and recent pressure from the Ceuta migrant crisis, Sánchez has publicly reaffirmed plans to present 2027 accounts and hold elections no earlier than February or March of next year if those budgets fail. Coalition partners such as the PNV have issued ultimatums tied to budget passage, yet no dissolution decree has been issued and constitutional timelines still permit the full term. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any verified move toward an immediate snap vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$38,534結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETSpain’s minority government under Pedro Sánchez continues to target completion of the current legislative term into 2027 rather than dissolving parliament in 2026. Despite the loss of Junts support since late 2025, repeated budget rejections, and recent pressure from the Ceuta migrant crisis, Sánchez has publicly reaffirmed plans to present 2027 accounts and hold elections no earlier than February or March of next year if those budgets fail. Coalition partners such as the PNV have issued ultimatums tied to budget passage, yet no dissolution decree has been issued and constitutional timelines still permit the full term. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome an 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any verified move toward an immediate snap vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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