Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing the $7,000–$7,500 range by year-end 2026, leading a fragmented field from the index's recent record highs near 7,450, driven by blockbuster Q1 earnings growth exceeding 27% year-over-year with beats on profits, sales, and guidance—one of the strongest seasons in two decades. Hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, alongside the Fed's steady 3.50%–3.75% funds rate target, has spiked Treasury yields and curbed rate-cut bets, fostering caution despite Wall Street targets like JPMorgan's 7,600 and Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Upside to $7,500+ hinges on sustained earnings momentum and policy easing; downside risks <$7,000 from persistent inflation or labor softening, with June FOMC and CPI key catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7,000-7,500 29%
7,500-8,000美元 15%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$25,219 交易量
$25,219 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
14%
6,000-6,500美元
15%
6,500-7,000美元
28%
7,000-7,500
26%
7,500-8,000美元
15%
>8,000美元
13%
7,000-7,500 29%
7,500-8,000美元 15%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$25,219 交易量
$25,219 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$15,544 交易量
14%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,479 交易量
15%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,389 交易量
28%
7,000-7,500
$1,114 交易量
26%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,401 交易量
15%
>8,000美元
$2,293 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing the $7,000–$7,500 range by year-end 2026, leading a fragmented field from the index's recent record highs near 7,450, driven by blockbuster Q1 earnings growth exceeding 27% year-over-year with beats on profits, sales, and guidance—one of the strongest seasons in two decades. Hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, alongside the Fed's steady 3.50%–3.75% funds rate target, has spiked Treasury yields and curbed rate-cut bets, fostering caution despite Wall Street targets like JPMorgan's 7,600 and Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Upside to $7,500+ hinges on sustained earnings momentum and policy easing; downside risks <$7,000 from persistent inflation or labor softening, with June FOMC and CPI key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$25,219結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing the $7,000–$7,500 range by year-end 2026, leading a fragmented field from the index's recent record highs near 7,450, driven by blockbuster Q1 earnings growth exceeding 27% year-over-year with beats on profits, sales, and guidance—one of the strongest seasons in two decades. Hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, alongside the Fed's steady 3.50%–3.75% funds rate target, has spiked Treasury yields and curbed rate-cut bets, fostering caution despite Wall Street targets like JPMorgan's 7,600 and Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Upside to $7,500+ hinges on sustained earnings momentum and policy easing; downside risks <$7,000 from persistent inflation or labor softening, with June FOMC and CPI key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$25,219結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing the $7,000–$7,500 range by year-end 2026, leading a fragmented field from the index's recent record highs near 7,450, driven by blockbuster Q1 earnings growth exceeding 27% year-over-year with beats on profits, sales, and guidance—one of the strongest seasons in two decades. Hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, alongside the Fed's steady 3.50%–3.75% funds rate target, has spiked Treasury yields and curbed rate-cut bets, fostering caution despite Wall Street targets like JPMorgan's 7,600 and Goldman Sachs' 7,600. Upside to $7,500+ hinges on sustained earnings momentum and policy easing; downside risks <$7,000 from persistent inflation or labor softening, with June FOMC and CPI key catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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