**Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he intends to serve “another term” and parallel indications from Justice Clarence Thomas that he plans to continue have anchored trader expectations against a vacancy this year.** At 76 and 78 respectively, both senior justices qualify for retirement under the Rule of 80 yet have actively dismissed speculation, with Alito hiring clerks for the 2026–2027 term and rejecting calls tied to Senate control or presidential appointment opportunities. No other justices have signaled departures, and the court opened its new term on October 6 with a full nine-member bench intact. Earlier 2026 rumors, including an erroneous NPR report on Alito, failed to produce action, leaving the implied probability of no vacancy at 85.5% as the prevailing trader assessment of limited near-term turnover risk.