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icon for 2026年最高法院的空缺？
政治·司各都

2026年最高法院的空缺？

icon for 2026年最高法院的空缺？
政治·司各都

2026年最高法院的空缺？

是

28% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

28% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,522
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,522
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年最高法院的空缺？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年的最高法院空缺？" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年最高法院的空缺？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年最高法院的空缺？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年最高法院的空缺？" is "2026年的最高法院空缺？" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年最高法院的空缺？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.