The trader consensus assigning a 67.5 percent implied probability against a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 rests primarily on recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. Both men, the court’s oldest members at 77 and 76, have signaled they intend to remain through the end of the year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. No health concerns or formal retirement announcements have emerged from any justice, and younger members show no signs of departure. Although President Trump has publicly discussed his readiness to name replacements and speculation persists ahead of the midterms, these developments have not altered the outlook enough to shift the market’s assessment of near-term vacancy risk.