Zohran Mamdani’s ascent as New York City mayor has propelled him to frontrunner status in the 2026 TIME Person of the Year market, with traders assigning him roughly 30% implied probability amid his rising national profile and policy clashes with the Trump administration. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, sits second as he positions middle powers against U.S. trade pressures and earns TIME100 recognition, while Pope Leo XIV draws support for his high-profile tensions with Trump on immigration and foreign policy. Donald Trump, the 2024 and 2016 winner, has seen his odds slip below 12% despite dominating headlines. The December announcement remains the key catalyst, with late-year developments in politics or culture likely to shift the closely watched field.