Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 320-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution or call early elections under Article 116. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have emphasized using the Article 116 route to enable Erdoğan’s 2028 candidacy rather than pursuing comprehensive constitutional replacement in the current legislative period. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş floated a 2026-2027 timeline in June, yet subsequent commentary from Uçum has pointed to the post-2028 period as more realistic. Ongoing PKK disarmament legislation and judicial packages have consumed parliamentary attention without generating the cross-party consensus required for constitutional overhaul before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to no substantive movement on a new constitution in 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
10% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
10% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 320-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution or call early elections under Article 116. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have emphasized using the Article 116 route to enable Erdoğan’s 2028 candidacy rather than pursuing comprehensive constitutional replacement in the current legislative period. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş floated a 2026-2027 timeline in June, yet subsequent commentary from Uçum has pointed to the post-2028 period as more realistic. Ongoing PKK disarmament legislation and judicial packages have consumed parliamentary attention without generating the cross-party consensus required for constitutional overhaul before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to no substantive movement on a new constitution in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 320-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution or call early elections under Article 116. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have emphasized using the Article 116 route to enable Erdoğan’s 2028 candidacy rather than pursuing comprehensive constitutional replacement in the current legislative period. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş floated a 2026-2027 timeline in June, yet subsequent commentary from Uçum has pointed to the post-2028 period as more realistic. Ongoing PKK disarmament legislation and judicial packages have consumed parliamentary attention without generating the cross-party consensus required for constitutional overhaul before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to no substantive movement on a new constitution in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETTurkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 320-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution or call early elections under Article 116. Recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have emphasized using the Article 116 route to enable Erdoğan’s 2028 candidacy rather than pursuing comprehensive constitutional replacement in the current legislative period. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş floated a 2026-2027 timeline in June, yet subsequent commentary from Uçum has pointed to the post-2028 period as more realistic. Ongoing PKK disarmament legislation and judicial packages have consumed parliamentary attention without generating the cross-party consensus required for constitutional overhaul before year-end. Traders therefore assign high probability to no substantive movement on a new constitution in 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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