Erdogan and his AKP have sustained calls for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, citing outdated provisions on rights, security, and governance, with a legal commission and deputy statements in May 2026 reaffirming ongoing preparatory work. Yet achieving meaningful progress in 2026 faces steep parliamentary hurdles, as constitutional reform typically requires 360 votes to trigger a referendum or 400 for direct passage, far beyond the ruling bloc’s current majority. Opposition parties have withheld support amid concerns over term limits and power consolidation, while recent focus on PKK-related reforms and coalition dynamics has not produced cross-party consensus. Traders price the “No” outcome at 78 percent because these institutional and political barriers make substantial advancement this year improbable absent unexpected breakthroughs.