**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月的美國龍捲風
2026年9月的美國龍捲風
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
少於25個 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
42%
25 - 49
46%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
47%
125 個或更多
21%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
少於25個 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少於25個
$0 交易量
42%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
46%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
52%
75 - 124
$0 交易量
47%
125 個或更多
$0 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-15市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-15市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions