Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於伊利亞·托普里亞 68%
Arman Tsarukyan 19.3%
賈斯汀·蓋奇 8.5%
查爾斯·奧利維拉 7.3%
$605,359 交易量
$605,359 交易量
伊利亞·托普里亞
68%
Arman Tsarukyan
16%
查爾斯·奧利維拉
7%
Max Holloway
<1%
賈斯汀·蓋奇
12%
帕迪·平布利特
<1%
丹·胡克
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
拉斐爾·菲齊耶夫
<1%
雷納托·莫伊卡諾
<1%
戰士A
<1%
伊利亞·托普里亞 68%
Arman Tsarukyan 19.3%
賈斯汀·蓋奇 8.5%
查爾斯·奧利維拉 7.3%
$605,359 交易量
$605,359 交易量
伊利亞·托普里亞
68%
Arman Tsarukyan
16%
查爾斯·奧利維拉
7%
Max Holloway
<1%
賈斯汀·蓋奇
12%
帕迪·平布利特
<1%
丹·胡克
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
拉斐爾·菲齊耶夫
<1%
雷納托·莫伊卡諾
<1%
戰士A
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
市場開放時間: Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions