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icon for Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?
政治·移民

Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?

icon for Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?
政治·移民

Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?

$33,721 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$33,721 交易量

Polymarket

4800+

$10,339 交易量

1%

4900+

$16,346 交易量

1%

5000+

$7,036 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/. If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.**ICE enforcement operations in New York City have expanded notably since President Trump’s second term began in January 2025, with federal data showing 5,567 immigration arrests in the NYC area through mid-March 2026—a 71% increase over the prior comparable period.** Roughly half occurred at the 26 Federal Plaza immigration court, reflecting a strategy of targeted operations against individuals with criminal records or removal orders. Key recent developments include a May 2026 federal court order limiting arrests at Manhattan immigration courthouses except in exceptional circumstances, alongside persistent NYC sanctuary policies that restrict local agencies from honoring ICE detainers or sharing information. These factors have shaped enforcement pace and tactics. Upstate New York has also recorded elevated activity, but New York City remains the focal point for volume. With the June 30 resolution date now less than two weeks away, trader consensus (reflected in current market pricing) incorporates the impact of judicial constraints, ongoing local non-cooperation, and the compressed remaining timeframe for additional arrests to accumulate toward the threshold. Scheduled enforcement actions or any further legal rulings in the interim represent the primary variables that could still influence the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/.

If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.
交易量
$33,721
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
May 28, 2026, 9:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/. If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/. If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.**ICE enforcement operations in New York City have expanded notably since President Trump’s second term began in January 2025, with federal data showing 5,567 immigration arrests in the NYC area through mid-March 2026—a 71% increase over the prior comparable period.** Roughly half occurred at the 26 Federal Plaza immigration court, reflecting a strategy of targeted operations against individuals with criminal records or removal orders. Key recent developments include a May 2026 federal court order limiting arrests at Manhattan immigration courthouses except in exceptional circumstances, alongside persistent NYC sanctuary policies that restrict local agencies from honoring ICE detainers or sharing information. These factors have shaped enforcement pace and tactics. Upstate New York has also recorded elevated activity, but New York City remains the focal point for volume. With the June 30 resolution date now less than two weeks away, trader consensus (reflected in current market pricing) incorporates the impact of judicial constraints, ongoing local non-cooperation, and the compressed remaining timeframe for additional arrests to accumulate toward the threshold. Scheduled enforcement actions or any further legal rulings in the interim represent the primary variables that could still influence the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/.

If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.
交易量
$33,721
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
May 28, 2026, 9:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Total Arrests counter for aliens in New York, NY, as reported by whitehouse.gov/aliens/, reaches or exceeds the specified figure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Total Arrests counter for the specified city at https://www.whitehouse.gov/aliens/. If the counter becomes unavailable and does not resume by the end of the third calendar day after it first became unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only cases reported by the specified resolution source will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4800+" at 1%, followed by "4900+" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?" has generated $33.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?" is "4800+" at just 1%, with "4900+" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will Alien arrests in New York hit ___ by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.