The high implied probability against H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects repeated House passage of the bill and its variants—including in April 2025 and February 2026—without corresponding Senate action. The legislation, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, has remained stalled in the upper chamber due to filibuster requirements and insufficient support to reach the 60-vote threshold. Recent House efforts in July 2026 to incorporate related provisions into the NDAA or other measures have not advanced through the Senate, where even some Republican members have expressed reservations. With limited legislative calendar remaining and no breakthrough via reconciliation or other procedures evident, traders view full bicameral passage and presidential signature before year-end as unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$190,044 交易量
$190,044 交易量
是
$190,044 交易量
$190,044 交易量
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects repeated House passage of the bill and its variants—including in April 2025 and February 2026—without corresponding Senate action. The legislation, which would mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, has remained stalled in the upper chamber due to filibuster requirements and insufficient support to reach the 60-vote threshold. Recent House efforts in July 2026 to incorporate related provisions into the NDAA or other measures have not advanced through the Senate, where even some Republican members have expressed reservations. With limited legislative calendar remaining and no breakthrough via reconciliation or other procedures evident, traders view full bicameral passage and presidential signature before year-end as unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions