Banksy’s established rhythm of unveiling authenticated street pieces multiple times annually, including murals and installations tied to political moments or holidays, anchors the 74% market-implied probability for a new work by December 31. Traders point to his confirmed 2025 output across spring, fall, and winter, plus the April 2026 London statue, as evidence of consistent productivity despite the artist’s anonymity. With roughly three months remaining and his Instagram remaining active—as seen in the recent Guess copyright dispute—momentum favors another stencil or installation before year-end. Key catalysts include holiday timing around Christmas and any late-year political developments that often prompt his event-driven releases, though the secretive authentication requirement leaves room for volatility.