The modest 4% rebound to $59.6 billion in 2025—driven by a 9% surge in public auctions and renewed high-end confidence—leaves the market needing roughly 9% further growth to clear $65 billion in 2026, creating the current near-even trader split. Strengthened dealer sentiment, with 43% now expecting improvement after two years of contraction, supports upside momentum alongside U.S. market leadership and rising transaction volumes. However, persistent macroeconomic headwinds, uneven regional performance, and cautious collector behavior continue to cap expectations. Key swing factors ahead include the strength of the spring and fall auction seasons, any major single-owner collections, and broader economic signals that could accelerate or stall the recovery trajectory.