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Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

icon for Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

50% 機率
Polymarket
最新
50% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-07-31
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-07-31
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 50% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 50¢, the market collectively assigns a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" is 50% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.