Deep U.S.-Mexico economic integration through the USMCA, combined with ongoing intelligence sharing and joint anti-cartel operations, underpins trader consensus against any U.S. invasion in 2026. Rhetoric from U.S. officials about targeting cartels as foreign terrorist organizations has prompted Mexican sovereignty assertions and private diplomatic pushback, yet no troop deployments, congressional authorizations, or formal war declarations have materialized by mid-August. Historical precedents of bilateral security cooperation and the prohibitive costs of large-scale military action in a neighboring democracy further anchor the 97.5% implied probability on "No." Late developments such as a major cross-border incident, sharp cartel escalation killing U.S. personnel, or abrupt policy shifts could still test this outlook before year-end, though structural and political barriers remain formidable.