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世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

icon for 美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？
世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

12月 31

12月 31

$7,523,553 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$7,523,553 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$550,918 交易量

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets that began February 28, 2026, and subsequent military operations under the ongoing conflict, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war as required by the Constitution. Recent developments center on diplomatic efforts, including a temporary ceasefire announced in early April and Iran's review of a US proposal in early May 2026 that offers sanctions relief and asset releases in exchange for nuclear program limits and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether stalled talks or future escalation could prompt congressional authorization, with upcoming negotiation rounds and potential military pressure points remaining key variables through mid-2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,523,553
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets that began February 28, 2026, and subsequent military operations under the ongoing conflict, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war as required by the Constitution. Recent developments center on diplomatic efforts, including a temporary ceasefire announced in early April and Iran's review of a US proposal in early May 2026 that offers sanctions relief and asset releases in exchange for nuclear program limits and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether stalled talks or future escalation could prompt congressional authorization, with upcoming negotiation rounds and potential military pressure points remaining key variables through mid-2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,523,553
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 7%, followed by "3月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" has generated $7.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is "12月31日" at just 7%, with "3月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.