Recent global temperature data from NOAA and NASA place May 2026 among the warmest months on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest at 65.5 percent because preliminary analyses show anomalies elevated yet marginally below the peaks observed in 2023 and 2024, consistent with neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions moderating extreme heat. Official monitoring highlights sustained above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins, supporting continued warmth without crossing into first-place territory. Final consolidated datasets expected in coming weeks will confirm the precise ranking relative to historical baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 28%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,245 交易量
$104,245 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
28%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 28%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,245 交易量
$104,245 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
$11,790 交易量
28%
2nd hottest
$3,370 交易量
67%
3rd hottest
$39,453 交易量
5%
4th or lower
$49,632 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature data from NOAA and NASA place May 2026 among the warmest months on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest at 65.5 percent because preliminary analyses show anomalies elevated yet marginally below the peaks observed in 2023 and 2024, consistent with neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions moderating extreme heat. Official monitoring highlights sustained above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins, supporting continued warmth without crossing into first-place territory. Final consolidated datasets expected in coming weeks will confirm the precise ranking relative to historical baselines.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$104,245结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature data from NOAA and NASA place May 2026 among the warmest months on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest at 65.5 percent because preliminary analyses show anomalies elevated yet marginally below the peaks observed in 2023 and 2024, consistent with neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions moderating extreme heat. Official monitoring highlights sustained above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins, supporting continued warmth without crossing into first-place territory. Final consolidated datasets expected in coming weeks will confirm the precise ranking relative to historical baselines.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$104,245结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature data from NOAA and NASA place May 2026 among the warmest months on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest at 65.5 percent because preliminary analyses show anomalies elevated yet marginally below the peaks observed in 2023 and 2024, consistent with neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions moderating extreme heat. Official monitoring highlights sustained above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins, supporting continued warmth without crossing into first-place territory. Final consolidated datasets expected in coming weeks will confirm the precise ranking relative to historical baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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