The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby market shows tightly bunched implied probabilities near 50% for several young power hitters, underscoring the competitive depth and format-driven uncertainty in who posts the highest single-round total. Jordan Walker, Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, and Jac Caglianone sit at the top of trader consensus due to their raw power profiles, recent swing mechanics, and high exit velocities that translate well to the Derby's pitch-tracking setup. Bryce Harper and Willson Contreras trade at lower levels around 25%, reflecting age, rest considerations, or historical Derby variance. With no dominant favorite and outcomes hinging on swing count, pitch location, and short-term streaks rather than season-long stats, the wisdom of crowds prices this as a wide-open contest where small edges in bat speed or stamina can shift results.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Jordan Walker 50%
Willson Contreras 49%
Jac Caglianone 49%
Bryce Harper 49%
最新
最新
2026-07-13
Jordan Walker
50%
Willson Contreras
49%
Jac Caglianone
49%
Bryce Harper
49%
凯尔·施瓦伯
50%
Ben Rice
49%
Junior Caminero
-
Jordan Walker 50%
Willson Contreras 49%
Jac Caglianone 49%
Bryce Harper 49%
最新
最新
2026-07-13
Jordan Walker
$41 交易量
50%
Willson Contreras
$22 交易量
49%
Jac Caglianone
$22 交易量
49%
Bryce Harper
$22 交易量
49%
凯尔·施瓦伯
$22 交易量
50%
Ben Rice
$22 交易量
49%
Junior Caminero
$43 交易量
-
This market will resolve according to the player that hits the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby market shows tightly bunched implied probabilities near 50% for several young power hitters, underscoring the competitive depth and format-driven uncertainty in who posts the highest single-round total. Jordan Walker, Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, and Jac Caglianone sit at the top of trader consensus due to their raw power profiles, recent swing mechanics, and high exit velocities that translate well to the Derby's pitch-tracking setup. Bryce Harper and Willson Contreras trade at lower levels around 25%, reflecting age, rest considerations, or historical Derby variance. With no dominant favorite and outcomes hinging on swing count, pitch location, and short-term streaks rather than season-long stats, the wisdom of crowds prices this as a wide-open contest where small edges in bat speed or stamina can shift results.
This market will resolve according to the player that hits the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
交易量
$195结束日期
2026-07-13市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player that hits the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby market shows tightly bunched implied probabilities near 50% for several young power hitters, underscoring the competitive depth and format-driven uncertainty in who posts the highest single-round total. Jordan Walker, Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, and Jac Caglianone sit at the top of trader consensus due to their raw power profiles, recent swing mechanics, and high exit velocities that translate well to the Derby's pitch-tracking setup. Bryce Harper and Willson Contreras trade at lower levels around 25%, reflecting age, rest considerations, or historical Derby variance. With no dominant favorite and outcomes hinging on swing count, pitch location, and short-term streaks rather than season-long stats, the wisdom of crowds prices this as a wide-open contest where small edges in bat speed or stamina can shift results.
This market will resolve according to the player that hits the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If two players tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player that hits the most home runs during the entirety of 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the player with the most home runs in a single round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$195结束日期
2026-07-13市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby market shows tightly bunched implied probabilities near 50% for several young power hitters, underscoring the competitive depth and format-driven uncertainty in who posts the highest single-round total. Jordan Walker, Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, and Jac Caglianone sit at the top of trader consensus due to their raw power profiles, recent swing mechanics, and high exit velocities that translate well to the Derby's pitch-tracking setup. Bryce Harper and Willson Contreras trade at lower levels around 25%, reflecting age, rest considerations, or historical Derby variance. With no dominant favorite and outcomes hinging on swing count, pitch location, and short-term streaks rather than season-long stats, the wisdom of crowds prices this as a wide-open contest where small edges in bat speed or stamina can shift results.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题