Aaron Judge leads trader consensus for the MLB home run title at 36.5% implied probability thanks to his proven ability to sustain elite power output over a full season, strong plate discipline, and favorable Yankees lineup protection. Kyle Schwarber sits at 27% after surging to 20 homers through mid-May, the first player to reach that mark in 2026, though concerns about regression from his early pace temper his odds. Munetaka Murakami at 14% benefits from a hot start with the White Sox that keeps him within striking distance alongside Matt Olson at 7.9% and Yordan Alvarez at 6.5%, whose consistent production in Houston’s order supports long-term viability. Recent injury recoveries and schedule strength for the top contenders further shape the current market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Aaron Judge 37%
Kyle Schwarber 27%
Munetaka Murakami 14%
Matt Olson 7.9%
Aaron Judge
37%
Kyle Schwarber
27%
Munetaka Murakami
14%
Matt Olson
8%
Yordan Alvarez
7%
James Wood
5%
Brandon Lowe
2%
Shohei Ohtani
2%
Elly De La Cruz
2%
Shea Langeliers
2%
Ben Rice
2%
Jordan Walker
2%
Manny Machado
1%
Cal Raleigh
1%
CJ Abrams
1%
Junior Caminero
1%
Nick Kurtz
1%
Sal Stewart
1%
George Springer
1%
Mike Trout
1%
Giancarlo Stanton
1%
Eugenio Suarez
1%
Juan Soto
1%
Rafael Devers
1%
Pete Alonso
1%
Aaron Judge 37%
Kyle Schwarber 27%
Munetaka Murakami 14%
Matt Olson 7.9%
Aaron Judge
37%
Kyle Schwarber
27%
Munetaka Murakami
14%
Matt Olson
8%
Yordan Alvarez
7%
James Wood
5%
Brandon Lowe
2%
Shohei Ohtani
2%
Elly De La Cruz
2%
Shea Langeliers
2%
Ben Rice
2%
Jordan Walker
2%
Manny Machado
1%
Cal Raleigh
1%
CJ Abrams
1%
Junior Caminero
1%
Nick Kurtz
1%
Sal Stewart
1%
George Springer
1%
Mike Trout
1%
Giancarlo Stanton
1%
Eugenio Suarez
1%
Juan Soto
1%
Rafael Devers
1%
Pete Alonso
1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aaron Judge leads trader consensus for the MLB home run title at 36.5% implied probability thanks to his proven ability to sustain elite power output over a full season, strong plate discipline, and favorable Yankees lineup protection. Kyle Schwarber sits at 27% after surging to 20 homers through mid-May, the first player to reach that mark in 2026, though concerns about regression from his early pace temper his odds. Munetaka Murakami at 14% benefits from a hot start with the White Sox that keeps him within striking distance alongside Matt Olson at 7.9% and Yordan Alvarez at 6.5%, whose consistent production in Houston’s order supports long-term viability. Recent injury recoveries and schedule strength for the top contenders further shape the current market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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