Trader consensus on "No" at 97.1% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale, with USGS catalogs documenting only a handful globally per century and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. Recent activity peaked at 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025 amid otherwise typical seismic patterns, with no sustained strain accumulation, foreshock sequences, or anomalous precursors reported by monitoring agencies on major subduction zones. Recurrence intervals for full-margin megathrust ruptures often span centuries, rendering a trigger within the brief remaining window statistically improbable absent major forecast revisions. While sudden rupture remains theoretically possible in high-strain regions such as Cascadia, current data support the market's strong lean toward resolution as "No."