Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” from the Toy Story 5 soundtrack and Ariana Grande’s “hate that i made you love me,” the lead single from her Petal album, sit nearly even in trader sentiment as the likeliest #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated August 22. Both tracks benefit from sustained streaming momentum and radio airplay while Ella Langley’s record-breaking “Choosin’ Texas” occupies the top spot for a 16th-plus week. Recent midweek tracking shows Swift holding or improving near the runner-up position and Grande climbing steadily, creating a tight contest where incremental gains in consumption metrics or promotional spikes could decide the outcome. Lower-probability entries from Langley, Morgan Wallen, and Olivia Rodrigo face steeper barriers from current standings and historical patterns for non-lead singles. The next chart refresh and final streaming data drops remain the key swing factors.