Israel's near-certain positioning in the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final reflects overwhelming trader consensus built on recent model projections and strong performance momentum. The Model's final forecast gives Israel's entry "Michelle" a commanding lead with 267 points, driven by dominant televote support and solid jury backing ahead of its Vienna staging. Bookmakers have similarly priced qualification odds above 95 percent, underscoring the song's catchy bilingual appeal and polished rehearsals that have generated buzz across fan communities. While an upset remains possible through a surprise surge from competitors like Finland or Greece via late televote shifts or staging surprises, current indicators point to a clear path forward for Israel.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Israel 100.0%
Greece <1%
Belgium <1%
Croatia <1%
$255,189 交易量
$255,189 交易量
2026-05-12
Israel
100%
Greece
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Finland
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Poland
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Israel 100.0%
Greece <1%
Belgium <1%
Croatia <1%
$255,189 交易量
$255,189 交易量
2026-05-12
Israel
$20,948 交易量
100%
Greece
$25,328 交易量
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 交易量
<1%
Croatia
$24,125 交易量
<1%
Finland
$46,044 交易量
<1%
Lithuania
$13,949 交易量
<1%
Moldova
$33,744 交易量
<1%
Poland
$18,074 交易量
<1%
Serbia
$11,005 交易量
<1%
Sweden
$14,527 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel's near-certain positioning in the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final reflects overwhelming trader consensus built on recent model projections and strong performance momentum. The Model's final forecast gives Israel's entry "Michelle" a commanding lead with 267 points, driven by dominant televote support and solid jury backing ahead of its Vienna staging. Bookmakers have similarly priced qualification odds above 95 percent, underscoring the song's catchy bilingual appeal and polished rehearsals that have generated buzz across fan communities. While an upset remains possible through a surprise surge from competitors like Finland or Greece via late televote shifts or staging surprises, current indicators point to a clear path forward for Israel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$255,189结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
争议期
最终
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel's near-certain positioning in the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final reflects overwhelming trader consensus built on recent model projections and strong performance momentum. The Model's final forecast gives Israel's entry "Michelle" a commanding lead with 267 points, driven by dominant televote support and solid jury backing ahead of its Vienna staging. Bookmakers have similarly priced qualification odds above 95 percent, underscoring the song's catchy bilingual appeal and polished rehearsals that have generated buzz across fan communities. While an upset remains possible through a surprise surge from competitors like Finland or Greece via late televote shifts or staging surprises, current indicators point to a clear path forward for Israel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$255,189结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
争议期
最终
Israel's near-certain positioning in the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final reflects overwhelming trader consensus built on recent model projections and strong performance momentum. The Model's final forecast gives Israel's entry "Michelle" a commanding lead with 267 points, driven by dominant televote support and solid jury backing ahead of its Vienna staging. Bookmakers have similarly priced qualification odds above 95 percent, underscoring the song's catchy bilingual appeal and polished rehearsals that have generated buzz across fan communities. While an upset remains possible through a surprise surge from competitors like Finland or Greece via late televote shifts or staging surprises, current indicators point to a clear path forward for Israel.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题