**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability. Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日北京气温最高？
8月16日北京气温最高？
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$115,908 交易量
$115,908 交易量
2026-08-16
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$115,908 交易量
$115,908 交易量
2026-08-16
23°C or below
$4,616 交易量
No
24°C
$14,021 交易量
No
25°C
$12,895 交易量
No
26°C
$12,868 交易量
No
27°C
$11,643 交易量
No
28°C
$10,690 交易量
Yes
29°C
$13,556 交易量
No
30°C
$12,339 交易量
No
31°C
$9,228 交易量
No
32°C
$7,424 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$6,628 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$115,908结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$115,908结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability. Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题